Feb. 24-28, 2022 — Mychailo Wynnyckyj: Thoughts from Kyiv

“Wars. Ukrainians. Humanity” is a collection of flash essays that sheds light on Ukrainian insights, experiences, and beliefs ignited by the full-scale russian invasion.

The Cultural Hub community and curators have carefully collected, translated, and illustrated these texts in order to capture Ukrainian values — Freedom, Bravery, Dignity, Responsibility, and Humour. 

We’ve created a series of publications in partnership with Chytomo to introduce this collection to English-speaking audiences. Volume 1 opens the series with a wartime diary by Mychailo Wynnyckyj that documents the first days of the war.  

Feb. 24

Dear Friends! So far putin is losing! But the war is just beginning.

The expected (by many, including western journalists) russian blitzkrieg has failed. putin wanted a “short victorious war.” He’s getting something very different.

Someday, someone will have to write a book on the sources of Ukraine’s intelligence just before the start of putin’s invasion. Clearly the Ukrainian military knew this morning’s attack was coming.

Just before the missiles exploded on the country’s airports, all military aircraft scrambled and were safely in the air by 5 a.m. Not a single Ukrainian fighter jet was lost in the first salvo.

The town of Brovary near Kyiv hosts several army bases. Several hours before the attack, all military personnel and dependants were evacuated. In the end, only one of the three russian cruise missiles launched on the base got through (two were destroyed by anti-aircraft fire), but casualties were minimal. Clearly the attack was expected. Somehow commanders had received prior warning.

If putin’s first wave of rockets was supposed to “shock and awe,” it did neither. Tanks and armored vehicles that entered Ukraine this morning from the north — from belarus into Zhytomyr oblast and from russia via Chernihiv oblast — were stopped by NLAWs and Javelins; tanks on the Kharkiv ringroad were destroyed by Ukrainian anti-tank weapons; a shortlived breakthrough of the border in Sumy oblast was also stopped in its tracks. The paratrooper assault on Hostomel airport (northwest of Kyiv) has just ended in the destruction of both the airport and the russian invaders, with three attack helicopters shot down.

Unfortunately, things are currently not going well in the south. russian troops from Crimea have occupied the town of Kakhovka in Kherson oblast, taking control of the viaduct that once supplied water to the drought-stricken peninsula. Watching videos of tanks with russian flags rolling into that region hurts. But this may well turn out to be a temporary victory for the russians.

The city of Mariupol in the southeast corner of the country stands. Its residents peacefully demonstrated their loyalty to Ukraine in the city’s central square despite the obvious risk.

Tonight, air-raid sirens have sounded in Kyiv and residents are huddled in the subway and bombshelters. Ukrainians are calm and angry. Our country has been blatantly invaded by people who claim to be our “brothers.” Some brothers…

We are motivated. We are calm.

We are on our land. This is our home.

Our army is strong. The invader will be repelled.

We appreciate the messages of support that have been pouring in from all corners of the world. Yes, we need help. Sanctions are much needed, but only force will deter putin.

russia enjoys air superiority over Ukraine’s forces. We need NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Please call your local politician and demand it.

God help us!

Feb. 25

The night is over. This was our first night in what I fear will be a very very long war.

Kyiv residents “slept” (if that’s what you can call it) in bomb shelters, subway stations, basements. Many have left the city for safer havens. Air raid sirens have just sounded in Lviv — the city in the west that was supposed to be beyond putin’s sphere of interest. Practically all of Ukraine’s cities experienced some form of attack during the last 24 hours.

War looks and feels different from the outside. Don’t get me wrong: we appreciate the public demonstrations of support worldwide! Ukrainians are particularly hopeful that russians (more specifically — moscovites) will finally rise up against their murderous tyrant.

For our western friends, the priority now should be to push for a no-fly zone to be declared and enforced by NATO over Ukraine.

Please don’t stall — just two days ago, I was debating putin’s rationality and intentions. That is completely irrelevant now. He is killing people! Many people! If he is not stopped, he will start WWIII.

russian soldiers captured yesterday, after abandoning their tanks, claimed they did not know they were being sent to kill Ukrainians. But that’s what they’re doing — killing.

Today and tonight will be crucial. Ukrainian forces have (so far) enjoyed early successes in the battles around Kyiv: Hostomel airport remains in Ukrainian hands, advances from belarus and russia via Chernihiv have been stopped. This morning, we have reports of russian special forces already in the capital — according to the Ministry of Defense, this adventurous group has been destroyed. But we may yet see pitched battles in the government quarter…

Much is being said of putin’s ability to “take” Kyiv. But even if Ukraine’s government falls, this war will not end. Acts of heroism like yesterday’s self-sacrifice of 13 brave servicemen on Zmiyinniy Island (massacred by the Naval vessel Moskva)* will become commonplace. russia cannot win this war. Even if a puppet government is installed, Ukrainians will continue to fight. Invasion will degenerate into insurgency. Ukrainians simply will not live under russia.

* On Feb. 28, 2022, it was confirmed that the marines and border guards from Snake Island were alive and had been taken captive by Russian forces. — Chytomo.

Whatever the outcome of the coming days, life will never be the same here. Ukrainians are united like never before: Collective hatred of the invader will eventually transform into cooperation and reconstruction. But in the meantime, many more will suffer and die.

It doesn’t have to be this way! Sanctions are good, but Ukrainians need air cover NOW.

#Ukrainians demand #noflyzoneoverukraine

Two days after Feb. 24

Listening to analysts from the West, one gets the impression that Ukraine’s fate was sealed the moment putin attacked on three fronts two days ago. On the other hand, reading reports from Ukraine (including from eyewitnesses and event participants), one can only conclude that putin’s planned “victorious” military escapade is turning into a complete disaster. Why the difference?

As a social system, russia represents the epitome of hierarchy, as embodied in autocracy. In this system, the voice of the individual does not matter. Soldiers are sent into battle without knowledge of their objectives. Commanders’ orders are expected to be followed — no questions asked. As the old soviet adage states: “You’re the boss, I’m an idiot. When I become the boss, you’ll be the idiot.” putin is the uber-boss and so goes unquestioned. His underlings derive their legitimacy via proximity to the boss — much like feudal lords 300 years ago.

Then there’s Ukraine — a country where anyone who claims the title “leader” is immediately scoffed; where “anarchist” is a slightly flattering label; where society is organized around grass-roots initiatives, rather than top-down commands; where people trust each other but distrust anything related to government. This is a country of agency with a strange cultural mix that values individual freedom in the extreme but also provides and expects collective responsibility. Hierarchy is despised. Personal leadership is always problematic.

Traditionally, we have always believed hierarchies to be more effective than groups — particularly in the military realm. Despite a wonderful book on the subject by US General McChrystal (“Team of teams”) that describes the anti-hierarchical structures that led to the US victory over ISIS in Iraq, the stereotype remains: Armies need commanding leaders to be effective.

Now look at what is happening in Ukraine. The russians have been given orders to attack. They are better equipped; they are better trained. And they are dying and/or being captured in massive numbers.

The Ukrainians are organized in small autonomous teams. It was these heterarchic structures that led to their success during the Maidan protests in 2014, and proved hugely effective in the volunteer battalions that repelled russia’s first invasion attempts in the Donbas 8 years ago. The teams include trained soldiers backed up by volunteers, individual hackers, vigilant civilians with social media…

Now let’s switch from military issues to organizational sociology. Hierarchies were typical (and effective) structures for industrial society. In a post-industrial world, the structures of choice are heterarchies — teams. Ford and GM are hierarchies. Facebook and Google are heterarchies.

During the last few days, the phrase “This war is not just about Ukraine” has been grossly overused. Most who repeat it mean that after swallowing Ukraine, putin will continue (like hitler did after Poland) to threaten other countries. But there is more to this statement than the threat of russian aggression. This war (like others before it) is about ideology in the sense that the winning side will dictate what ideas will define organizational structures after the war is over.

In this sense, it is a “civilizational” conflict between the future and the past. The past is dying on the multiple battlefields of Ukraine: russian soldiers tragically demonstrating the ineffectiveness of hierarchy. Maybe several decades ago, if putin had decided to invade his neighbor with the intention of installing a puppet government, he may have had a chance of success. But in a post-industrial world, where battlefield information can be made available instantly via social media by any motivated citizen, orders from above don’t lead to victory. A well-motivated and loosely organized team does.

All of the above does not mean Ukrainians have already won. But they’ve got an excellent chance. And if they do rout the russian invader, the significance of Ukraine’s victory will mean much more to the world than the survival of a democratic state in Europe. It will signal the effectiveness of the post-industrial paradigm of heterarchic teams. The future will have won over the past.

To make it happen Ukrainians need air support!

#Ukrainians demand #noflyzoneoverUkraine

Afternoon of Feb. 26

According to unconfirmed reports, putin was handed a report of russian losses this morning that showed 3471 dead. This number matches official reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense published at 8 a.m. local time. They also counted over 100 destroyed enemy tanks, over 500 armored vehicles, 14 russian fighter jets, and eight helicopters. Ukrainian losses are 20–25% of those of the invader.

Obviously, the russian advance is not going well. According to western intelligence, the kremlin had planned to topple Ukraine’s duly elected government by now, and russian television was supposed to be showing Ukrainians welcoming their “liberators” with flowers on Sunday morning. Instead, we have depressing photos and videos of captured russian soldiers circulating social media: Most have no idea what their orders are, why they are in Ukraine, nor why the local population is not happy to see them.

In these circumstances, putin must escalate. His ground forces have proven unreliable. russian artillery has successfully launched attacks on infrastructure targets on the outskirts of Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol (civilian casualties have been reported), but the kremlin’s guns have not gotten near enough to Kyiv to be effective. Reconnaissance groups sent into the capital to sabotage key targets have been met with both civilian and military resistance and have proven completely ineffective.

The plan to quickly occupy Ukraine’s capital and install a puppet government has failed. The Ukrainian population must now be forced to submit. In other words, those that are not prepared to live under a russian yoke must be destroyed.

russian state media is broadcasting fake reports of mass desertions from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and pictures of apparent “victories” of the luhansk people’s republic in Stanytsia Luhanska. Obviously they are not informing their audience of the massive losses suffered by the russian army in Ukraine, nor of the obvious failure of the kremlin’s initial invasion plan. However, they are showing a video from Kyiv where over 20 thousand automatic rifles were issued yesterday to local residents who have signed up for the Territorial Defense Force. According to the kremlin propagandist spin, these weapons have fallen into the hands of criminals — a claim that strengthens putin’s false narrative, according to which his objective is the “demilitarization” of Ukraine.

Looking to the immediate future: russian land entry into Kyiv will be met with fierce resistance. With ground assault becoming impossible, putin is likely to resort to more reliable means of weakening the Ukrainian side: ballistic missiles and bombers. For the moment, the use of chemical and nuclear weapons is unlikely (although cannot be completely ruled out), but a significant conventional attack by short-range Iskander rockets is likely. The goal will be to weaken and demoralize Ukraine. Civilian casualties will be unavoidable.

putin has demonstrated that his war is not limited to a particular region of Ukraine. His initial attack on February 24 targeted military infrastructure throughout the country. The next wave of bombardment is likely to also encompass the whole country. I am particularly concerned that the russian president’s hatred towards “Ukrainian nationalists” will be vented at cities in the western region of the country where large numbers of civilians have fled in search of safe havens.

Although not completely destroyed, Ukraine’s anti-aircraft and missile defense capabilities have been significantly weakened during the past 2 days of fighting. However, an all-out ballistic missile bombardment supported by heavy bombers is likely to be overwhelming.

Ukraine needs air cover!

God help us!

Source: MinistryofDefence.UA Facebook page 

#ukrainians desperately need a #noflyzoneoverUkraine

Feb. 27

This will be a highly politically incorrect post. You may cease to follow me after reading it. I will not be offended.

I’d like to take a moment to compare the russian and Ukrainian reactions to current events.

Scene 1: st. petersburg russia anti-war protests. People gather in large numbers; police begin to arrest individual protesters. Others, instead of aiding their comrades, stand by filming the arrests on their phone cameras.

Scene 2: Yesterday in Obolon (a northern suburb of Kyiv) automatic weapons are distributed to volunteers (see video). Over 20 thousand rifles and 1 million units of ammunition were handed out in Kyiv yesterday. Crime rates have dropped significantly.

Scene 3: russian invaders in Sumy are passed by a civilian car and have a Molotov cocktail thrown into their vehicle. Welcome to hell! (video).

Scene 4: Zaporizhzhia oblast. russian tanks enter a Ukrainian village. Unarmed civilians stand in the middle of the road to stop them. The tanks retreat (video).

Scene 5: Town of Koruykiv, Chernihiv oblast. russian tanks withdraw after being met by hundreds of local residents who made it clear they were not interested in being “liberated” (video).

Scene 6: Two “genius” invaders near Kharkiv ran out of diesel in their armored vehicle, so they came to the police station in the village of Shevchenkove (!) to ask for a fill-up. Add two to the POW count (photo).

Scene 7: russian reconnaissance teams have laid anti-personnel mines in the Berdyansk region. Locals who find these mines quietly remove them into the local woods (video).

Scene 8: russian invaders’ armored vehicles break down in Kyiv oblast. They ask for help and directions from a passing car. They are told precisely where to go.

Throughout the country, traffic signs are being removed by local residents. Some are being replaced with creative alternatives (photo). The 13 brave soldiers on Zmiyinniy Island who perished after telling the russian ship Moskva to go “nakhuy” will be remembered forever.*

*On Feb. 28, 2022, it was confirmed that the marines and border guards from Snake Island were alive and had been taken captive by Russian forces. — Chytomo.

My dear russian protesters — all of you who are against the war! Until your actions start coming close to approximating the valor and bravery of Ukrainians, the world continue to be hostage to your maniacal President. I realize that not all of you are as stupid as some of the soldiers that have invaded my home, but…

Grow some balls! Fast! The world is counting on you!

Afternoon of Feb. 27

Kyiv survived another night. The russian invaders continue their forward movement from the north, but their reconnaissance groups are being stamped out like cockroaches. Civilians are stopping the advance of tanks and armored vehicles with their bare hands. The heroism and valor of ordinary Ukrainians are both moving and nothing less than amazing.

russian losses are mounting. At 9 a.m. the Deputy Minister of Defense reported over 4200 KIA and wounded, 27 downed jets, 26 helicopters, 146 destroyed tanks, and 706 armored vehicles. The list of losses goes on.

Economic sanctions against russia will take time to really bite, but they will. Military aid continues to flow in from Ukraine’s western allies (and we are grateful!). The sky has not been closed yet with a no-fly zone and we continue to ask for global support for this initiative.

putin is obviously on pause today — likely reassessing his options after the blatant failure of his planned blitzkrieg. The longer he thinks, the more Ukrainians mobilize and the more costs he incurs. So he will act soon.

The most worrying scenario involves the indiscriminate use by russia of heavy rockets on Ukrainian cities. Initially, they will launch Iskander and Buratino, but even intermediate missiles could be thrown at us. A chemical or nuclear option cannot be discounted if the war continues to go badly for russia.

Of course in this scenario, the international community will pressure Ukraine to agree to peace talks. And here’s the problem: Zelensky can agree to peace only on the condition that russia removes all of its troops from Ukrainian territory (including Crimea). Anything less will be completely unacceptable to a fully mobilized Ukrainian population.

But accepting such a condition will mean political suicide for putin. He now has no option but to escalate.

Today’s public order to bring all of russia’s defenses (veiled — including nuclear forces) to full war readiness, was just that — escalation. Now western leaders and populations will be panicking and pressuring Ukraine to agree to peace. But again — peace without full withdrawal of the russian invader from Ukraine is impossible, and putin will never agree to such a withdrawal.

The world is now in an impossible situation. We cannot agree to putin’s terms because that would amount to appeasing aggression and would encourage more war. But the longer Ukraine waits for direct involvement by NATO forces, the more people will die (on both sides). Ukrainians will continue to resist, russia will launch more and more rockets on our cities. Destruction, death, suffering…

As I’ve said before, Ukraine’s army and population will defend itself. We will prevail. russia cannot occupy Ukraine. It can only destroy us. But in the process, it will destroy the entire world.

We are grateful for the global support that Ukrainians have received in our fight for freedom. But very soon this war may become more than just a story of valor in a distant corner of Europe. The war that has been started in Ukraine by the maniac in the kremlin may very soon go global.

God help us all!

Afternoon of Feb. 28

Much going on at the moment:

— residential districts of Kharkiv and Chernihiv under Grad attack

— significant areas of southern Ukraine occupied by russians, but local residents continue resistance and civil disobedience

— Kyiv is defiant and (in my opinion) invincible.

The above conditions make the peace talks launched today in belarus highly problematic. The russian delegation will try to gain concessions (or even capitulation) from the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians will tell the “russian ship” exactly where to go. Even if a cease-fire is agreed, there is no chance that it will hold. putin will continue to escalate.

Given the nuclear threat voiced by the russian president yesterday, escalation is scary not just for Ukraine, but for the world. Hopes for a kremlin coup or mass demonstrations in moscow (in my opinion) are just that — hopes. This war is going to get much worse before it gets any better.

As to the eventual outcome for Ukraine, I remain highly optimistic. I simply cannot imagine Ukrainians agreeing to russian occupation, and so even if the country is overrun by tanks and equipment, and even if supply lines are cut, the russians will be faced with an unprecedented insurgency that will have the support of the entire civilized world. We will win this war! The question now is, how many lives will be lost in the process?

The sad part of this story is that putin started this war because he genuinely came to believe his own propaganda. While the West believed russia could be deterred with sanctions or that the discourse on NATO and geopolitics was genuine, putin was always very candid. He stated outright that in his mind Ukraine is an artificial country with no separate national identity and no right to exist. Now ordinary russian soldiers and valiant Ukrainian defenders (i.e. the entire population) are paying the ultimate price.

According to the latest poll approval ratings for President Zelensky have sky-rocketed above 90%. Meanwhile, the russian rouble has become junk currency, and even Switzerland (!) has declared that it cannot remain neutral in this conflict.

The kremlin’s initial overconfidence and total miscalculations have now become public. The state-owned RIA-Novosti website mistakenly published an article at 8 a.m. on Feb. 26 proclaiming russia’s victory over Ukraine (two days after the start of the invasion). Its author pyotr akopov proclaimed the establishment of a “new world” and the “final solution of the Ukrainian question” (echoing another “final solution” author). The article was immediately taken down after publication, but was saved by Google cache — link provided below.*

Obviously, putin was not expecting the Ukrainians to resist. Indeed, reports of russian troops currently in Ukrainian territory being surprised that they are not being met with open arms are commonplace. They too believed the official kremlin propaganda that Ukrainians seek liberation by russia. That said, it may not stop them in the short term.

As the excellent operational publications by military analyst Tom Cooper show (please follow him on FB — don’t friend request unless you know him personally), the russians may not be advancing as fast as they had planned, but they are nevertheless advancing. The strategic plan seems to be to isolate Ukraine’s main fighting force on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro river. Key strategic targets for this to happen are Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Cherkasy.

This means the advance on Kyiv may in fact slow during the coming days. russian forces are massing on the territory that they have already wedged into from the north in preparation for a final push on the capital, but that may not happen before the south is fully secured. Obviously, the russians will be met with fierce resistance in Kyiv from both the Armed Forces and civilians. I cannot imagine any other way for them to control Kyiv than mass genocide of the city’s population.

The primary and immediate threat to Ukraine (and to the world!) continues to come from the air: Iskander and Buratino missiles and aerial bombardment. Apparently, a no-fly zone is seriously being considered in western capitals, but if it only covers right-bank Ukraine (west of the Dnipro), that will be a sell-out. Please continue the pressure on your governments dear friends!

#Ukrainians deserve a #noflyzoneoverUkraine

#ThoughtsfromKyiv

* https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

Evening of Feb. 28

Air raid warning means time to think and write in the basement. Family is safe. Planes flying overhead but no explosions nearby.

Two valuational/behavioral contrasts that strike me as worthy of analysis in this war:

hierarchy vs. heterarchy (spontaneous teams)

passivity vs. agency (collective and personal)

When russian soldiers entered Ukraine (and as they continue to invade) they were following orders. The hierarchy told them to move in, so they moved. That’s the way things work in an army.

But if field commanders are to succeed in their missions, they must also believe in what they are doing. The russians were told they would be welcomed by Ukrainians as “liberators.” Reality has been very different.

Cognitive dissonance has resulted in the russians’ total passivity. Instead of continuing to follow orders to attack, they are simply freezing — not necessarily laying down their weapons, but certainly slowing their advance.

When faced with unarmed civilian resistance, they pull back as happened yesterday in Koryukiv Chernihiv oblast and in Berdyansk in the south today. In the latter case, russian forces simply withdrew their APC’s from the center of town after its citizens surrounded them singing the Ukrainian anthem.

The russians’ equipment is old. It breaks down regularly. Their vehicles run out of fuel. When this happens, the crews often abandon both their arms and vehicles. Territorial brigades and police later pick them up with the help of civilians. The invaders are often in a sorry state: hungry, lost, scared.

One wonders how this could possibly be one of the most powerful armies on earth. Granted, these are not (yet) russia’s elite units, but still…

Now the contrast with Ukrainians. Although I have very little information on the internal workings of Ukrainian army operations, the extent to which civilians have spontaneously mobilized is breathtaking. No orders necessary, just a common cause. Exactly like the Maidan protests but on a nationwide scale. The closest parallel seems to be a beehive.

In this context, the worst psychological stress is caused by helplessness. One wants to be involved, to be useful, to sign up for territorial defense, to volunteer, to provide care and comfort. When the air raid warnings sound and people are forced to shelter, that is when they feel the worst.

Ironically, safety = helplessness = stress.

Collective action, though dangerous = agency = freedom.

That is the logic that brings ordinary civilians into the streets to stop tanks with their bare hands, to throw Molotov cocktails from their own vehicles into those of the invader, to organize teams of local men to hunt down russian recon groups with their hunting rifles and pitchforks. That is the reality that I’ve witnessed and it makes this nation invincible.

Sadly, the opposite reality of russia — socialized in hierarchy and lacking the sense of freedom that is the foundation of personal and collective agency — is what we see at anti-war protests in moscow. The video of multiple protesters fleeing from a single riot police officer has gone viral on Ukraine’s social networks tonight. I’ll post it in the first comment.

If our only hope to end this war is for the russians themselves to come to their senses and overthrow putin, I fear we’re in for a long wait. And a long resistance here.

God help us!

* The editorial “rule of small letters” or the “rule of disrespect for criminals” applies to all the words related to evil, like names and surnames of terrorists, war criminals, rapists, murderers, and torturers. They do not deserve to be capitalized but shall be written in italics to stay in the focus of the readers’ attention. 

The program “Wars. Ukrainians. Humanity” has been created through joint effort and financial support of the institution’s members of the Cultural Business Education Hub, the European Cultural Foundation, and BBK — the Regensburg Art and Culture Support Group from the Professional Association of Artists of Lower Bavaria/Upper Palatinate.

Author: Mychailo Wynnyckyj 

Illustrators: Victoria Boyko (Feb. 24-25, Feb. 27, Afternoon of Feb. 28), Christina Katrakis (Two days after Feb. 24, Afternoon of Feb. 26, Afternoon of Feb. 27, Evening of Feb. 28), plasticine panel by Olha Protasova

Copyeditors: Yuliia Moroz, Terra Friedman King

Proofreaders: Iryna Andrieieva, Terra Friedman King

Content Editors: Maryna Korchaka, Natalia Babalyk

Program Directors: Julia Ovcharenko and Demyan Om Dyakiv-Slavitski