Fukuyama: Russia’s defeat will make possible «the new birth of freedom» and save democracy from decline

Francis Fukuyama, an American philosopher, bestselling author, publicist and lecturer at Stanford University, has written his thoughts about the war in Ukraine. It was published in an article for American Purpose.

Philosopher said: «I am writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I have been for the last week, teaching one of our courses at the Academy of Leadership for Development. During the war in Ukraine, nothing has changed in terms of available information, except that I am in the neighbouring time zone and that putin is more supported in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. This is thanks to Serbia, because it broadcasts Sputnik channel».

The article consists of 12 points on russia’s war against Ukraine:

1. Russia is heading for complete defeat in Ukraine. Russia’s plan was incompetent, based on the mistaken assumption that Ukrainians were sympathetic to russia and that their troops would surrender immediately after the invasion. This is clear from the fact that russian soldiers took a parade uniform with them for the Victory Parade in Kyiv, instead of additional ammunition and rations. Now putin has joined most of his military in the operation and there are no longer huge reserves of forces he could use to confront. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities, where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.

2. The collapse of their situation can be sudden and catastrophic, rather than slow, due to the war of attrition. The army in the field will reach the point where it will not be able to supply or take anything out of it, and morale will disappear. So it will be at least in the north; currently the russians are in the better position in the south, but it will be difficult to maintain them if the north collapses.

3. There is no possible diplomatic solution to the war. There is no compromise that would be acceptable to both russia and Ukraine, given the losses they have suffered so far.

4. The United Nations Security Council has reiterated that it is of no use. The only useful thing was the vote in the General Assembly, which helps to identify the worst or most unfaithful actors in the world.

5. The decision of Biden’s administration not to declare a no-fly zone or to help transfer Polish MiGs was correct; they stay positive during a very emotional period. It is much better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them and avoiding all the obvious possibilities of escalation. In particular, Polish MiGs would not significantly strengthen Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is the continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2, medical supplies, communication equipment and information exchange. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already under the control of NATO intelligence, which operates outside Ukraine.

6. The price that Ukraine pays is, of course, huge. But the greatest damage is caused by missiles and artillery, with which neither the MiGs nor the no-fly zone can do anything. The only thing that will stop the massacre is the defeat of the russian army on the ground.

7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He receives support because he is considered a strong man, but what can he offer when demonstrating incompetence and being deprived of coercion?

8. The invasion has already caused enormous damage to populists around the world, who unanimously expressed sympathy for putin before the attack. These are people like Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Eric Zemmour, Marin Le Pen, Victor Orban and, of course, Donald Trump. The policy of the war showed their openly authoritarian tendencies.

9. This war was a good lesson for China. Like russia, China has created seemingly high-tech military forces over the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The pathetic work of the Russian Military Force is likely to be repeated by the Military Force of the People’s Liberation Army, which also has no experience in managing complex air operations. We can hope that the Chinese leadership will not deceive itself about its own capabilities, as the russians have done, when considering a future move against Taiwan.

10. I hope that Taiwan itself will wake up to the need to prepare for the struggle, as the Ukrainians did, and resume military service. Let’s not talk about defeat prematurely.

11. Turkish drones will become bestsellers.

12. The defeat of russia will make possible «the new birth of freedom» and save us from the decline of global democracy. Thanks to the large number of brave Ukrainians, the spirit of 1989 will live on.

Francis Fukuyama has been following events in Ukraine closely since the Orange Revolution. In September 2013, two months before the Revolution of Dignity, he was in Kyiv and during one of his lectures spoke with deep disappointment about the failure of democratic transformations in Ukraine, which resulted in the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych:

«Ukrainians have once surprised the world with their desire for change in 2004, and when the failure happened, they surprised the world again in 2014. In this sense, this is a huge potential that now needs to be directed to make officials and politicians work as a single political system» (from an interview with Mustafa Nayem).

In August 2014, after the Revolution of Dignity, the philosopher noted:

«First of all, I was amazed that civil society in Ukraine did not give up after the failure of the Orange Revolution. You have maintained and strengthened your ability to organize yourself and put pressure on the government. The people of the country have not lost their desire for better power».

The philosopher is the author of the bestsellers «Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment», «The Origins of Political Order: From prehuman times to the French Revolution», «Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy» and other books.

As previously reported, the American writer Stephen King stressed the need to break the «wall of disinformation» in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Also, world-renowned authors are terminating book contracts in Russia.