Andrey Kurkov has better odds than J.K. Rowling but trails Can Xue. Who will win the Nobel?

Ukrainian writer Andrey Kurkov appears alongside Romanian author Mircea Cărtărescu, Greek writer Ersi Sotiropoulos, and Polish poet Ryszard Krynicki in the latest bookmakers’ odds ahead of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature.

As of Sept. 29, British bookmaker Ladbrokes gave Cărtărescu and Sotiropoulos odds of 25/1, while Kurkov and Krynicki were listed at 33/1.

Chinese writer Can Xue had the shortest odds at 10/1, followed by Japanese writer Haruki Murakami at 14/1. Australian writer Gerald Murnane and U.S. author Thomas Pynchon were both listed at 16/1.

Kurkov is one of Ukraine’s most internationally recognized contemporary writers. His novels “Jimi Hendrix Live in Lviv,” translated by Reuben Woolley, and “The Silver Bone,” translated by Boris Dralyuk, were longlisted for the International Booker Prize in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

In June 2026, Kurkov received a Special Prize from the Orwell Foundation. His book “Three Years On Fire: The Destruction of Ukraine,” chronicling the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, was also a finalist for the 2026 Orwell Prize for Political Writing. Earlier this year, his short story “Don’t Fear the Depths” was included in “All Around the World,” an anthology published by the Booker Prize Foundation.

Cărtărescu is one of Romania’s most internationally recognized contemporary authors. His novel “Solenoid,” translated into English by Sean Cotter, won the 2024 Dublin Literary Award. His other international honors include the FIL Prize in Literature in Romance Languages, the Thomas Mann Prize, the Austrian State Prize for Literature, and the Formentor Prize.

Photo: New Directions Publishing

Sotiropoulos is a Greek novelist, poet, and short-story writer whose work has received literary awards in Greece and abroad. She has twice won Greece’s National Book Award, while her novel “What’s Left of the Night” received France’s Prix Méditerranée Étranger in 2017. Karen Emmerich’s English translation of the novel received the National Translation Award in the United States in 2019.

Photo: Sursock Museum

Krynicki is a Polish poet, translator, and publisher associated with Poland’s New Wave literary movement. In 1975, he was among the signatories of the Protest of 59 against proposed changes to the constitution of communist Poland, and from 1976 to 1980 his work was banned from official publication. In 1988, he founded the a5 publishing house, which has published writers including Nobel laureate Wisława Szymborska. Krynicki has also translated German-language authors, including Paul Celan and Bertolt Brecht.

Photo: Culture.pl

As reported earlier, Cărtărescu and Krynicki have appeared in bookmakers’ Nobel predictions before. In 2022, both were listed at odds of 20/1 ahead of that year’s Nobel Prize in Literature.

The published Ladbrokes list ends with J.K. Rowling, author of the “Harry Potter” series, at odds of 50/1 — longer than Kurkov’s 33/1.

Photo: www.biography.com

Bookmakers’ odds do not represent official nominations for the Nobel Prize. Information about nominees and the selection process remains confidential for 50 years.

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced on Oct. 8.

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Main photo: The Ukrainians